> ./tools/pass-odds
Challenge pass probability calculator
Simulate thousands of runs with your win rate and risk to estimate the odds of passing, the odds of blowing the account and the days it takes.
Chance of passing–
Chance of blowing the account–
Out of days, undecided–
Days to pass (median)–
Average attempts per pass–
Expectancy per trade–
5,000 simulated runs; each trade wins or loses independently at the rate you enter. Real trading is harder: win rates drift, losses cluster, and psychology shifts near the target or the loss limit. The simulation ignores the consistency rule and commissions. Treat the result as an optimistic ceiling.
These tools give estimates only. Fees, rules and contract values can change; check the firm's and exchange's own pages before trading. This is not investment advice.